循環(huán)碳經(jīng)濟(jì)系列報(bào)告1-減少原料

1、Table of contents0001020304 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Executive summary 05 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 G20 Actions/ Recommendations 08 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Introduction 09Energy efficiency within the context of the circular carbon economyThe impact of the Covid-19 pandemicTrends before Covid-19Causes o

2、f slowdownMultiple benefits of energy efficiencyCurrent status 18TransportBuildings and appliancesIndustryOutlook 26The Covid-19 pandemic will affect the short-term outlookIncreased activity will have an impact on the longer-term outlookCarbon management potential 31BuildingsTransportIndustryLeverag

3、ing Covid-19 stimulus effortsTable of contents05Barriers 41Information barriersFinancial barriers and market failuresMisaligned incentives and behavioural barriersTechnological barriersEnabling policies 4606Box: The recommendations of the Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy EfficiencyTarge

4、ts and roadmapsRegulatory policiesInformation and awarenessIncentivesCapacity buildingReferences 56FiguresFigure 1: Additional reductions in CO2 emissions by measure under the Sustainable Development 10Scenario relative to the Stated Policies ScenarioFigure 2: Share of global population under contai

5、nment measures (IEA 2020) 11Figure 3: Decline in global energy intensity 2011-19 12Figure 4: Change in global primary energy demand and causes, 2018-19 13Figure 5: The multiple benefits of energy efficiency improvements 16Figure 6: Rate of change in energy intensity by sector, 1990-2010 and 2010-17

6、19Figure 7: Factors influencing passenger transport energy use, 2015-18 20Figure 8: Factors influencing residential buildings energy use, 2015-18 22Figure 9. Energy use patterns in the industrial and service sectors (left) and the regional 24contribution to observed efficiency savings (right) in maj

7、or economies, 2000-17Figure 10. Projected change in primary energy demand by fuel in 2020 relative to 2019 27Figure 11. Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development 32Scenario by sourceFigure 12. Improvement in energy intensity by sector and region in the STEPS and SDS,

8、 2018-30 33Figure 13. Efficiency ratings of available air conditioning units by regional metric 35Figure 14. Measures contributing to a policy strategy to increase efficiency 47Figure 15. Share of steel production by process route and specific consumption of steel 52production, 2017BoxesBox : The re

9、commendations of the Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency 47Executive SummaryEnergy efficiency is at the forefront of the effort to transform global energy systems; it reduces energy costs, drives economic development, improves health and well-being, and reduces carbon emissions.

10、 Within the circular carbon economy framework, the “reduction” of energy demand, compared to what it otherwise would be, through energy efficiency will be critical to ensuring the effectiveness of the “reuse, recycle and remove” stages that follow.Energy efficiency policies can help economies grow a

11、nd allow greater access to affordable energy services, while reducing negative impacts of energy consumption. Implementing the full range of currently available, economically viable efficiency solutions alone could create a 50% reductionin energy intensity by 2040 compared with today. It would mean

12、only a marginal increase in total energy consumed, despite an expected doubling in the size of the global economy, with associated benefits of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction.IEA modelling shows the potential of existing technologies to deliver an annual energy intensity impr

13、ovement rate of 3.6%, if fully deployed. This would provide around 40% of the GHG emissions abatement required by 2040 to be in line with the Paris Agreement. However, annual rates of improvement in the energy intensity of the global economy have slowed in recent years, froma high of 3% in 2015 to 1

14、.3% and 2% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. A combination of increased economic activity, changing economic structure, more extreme weather days and lagging policy adoption have contributed to the slowing of annual improvement.Governments can capture a wide range of benefits through investment in eff

15、iciency. These include: social benefits, like improved public health, energy access and job creation; economic benefits, such as reduced pressure on government budgets, cost savings at the individual/household level and improved energy security; and environmental benefits, including improved air qua

16、lity and less pollution. Achieving the intensity gains mentioned above would save households worldwide USD 550 billion in annual energy costs by 2040.Similarly, research shows that enhancing efficiency in the air conditioning sector, one of the fastest- growing sources of global electricity demand,

17、could decrease emissions and greatly reducepeak demand in electricity systems. All markets show the potential to double the efficiency of air conditioning equipment with the right policies. A recent analysis of the Saudi Arabian cooling market showed that investment in improving cooling efficiency c

18、ould see full payback within just two years. Likewise, proliferation of clean, efficient cooking technologies could help reduce premature deaths from household air pollution by almost 1 million per year in 2040.The disruption to global energy systems in 2020 caused by the Covid-19 pandemic will also

19、 have many serious implications for energy efficiency. At the same time, stronger energy efficiency action offers opportunities for short-term economic stimulus and job creation, as well as putting the world on course for a more energy-efficient future.In light of the recent Covid-19 crisis, many go

20、vernments are working to stimulate economic activity through recovery packages. Investment in energy efficiency remains one of the most cost- effective, jobs-intensive instruments for economic stimulus. According to the IEAs Sustainable Recovery Plan for the Energy Sector, driving up the efficiency

21、of buildings, appliances, industry and transport vehicles represents one of the most effective strategies for job creation, creating around 10 to 15 jobs for every million dollars of capital investment (IEA, 2020h). It also has the advantage of short lead times for scaling up activity and many of th

22、e jobs are created locally.Looking ahead, energy efficiency presents a wide range of opportunities for economic and environmental transformation using readily available, affordable technology in every sector. Technological innovation is not the primary barrier to early progress; rather, it is the le

23、vels of ambition and political will that will drive the scale up of energy efficiency. .Governments play a vital role. Through ambitious policies and strong incentives, and by encouraging private-sector leadership, governments can accelerate the uptake of efficient technologies and help solutions re

24、ach the scale needed to achieve global goals. For example, strengthened energy efficiency policies could ensure that the average building of 2040 is 40% more efficient than current buildings. Similarly, policies to support industrial efficiency could result in a doubling of value created per unit of

25、 energy used across the industrial and service sectors by 2040 compared with current levels.Governments have a diversity of pathways available to implement accelerated, ambitious policy action on energy efficiency. However, they should keep in mind a common set of principlesand recommendations when

26、considering efficiency policy as part of their climate and energy strategies, both in the short term and the long term.Governments need to be ambitious and take a broad approach by covering all sectors in their efficiency planning. It is important for them to lead by example by investing in energy e

27、fficiency of their own operations, whether through procurement policies or investment in government-owned infrastructure. Similarly, governments should engage at all levels of society to plan, implement and achieve their strategies, embracing municipal and sub-national government, civil society, ind

28、ustry, finance and the private sector.Digital innovation offers huge potential to drive new progress in energy efficiency, including unlocking innovative business models and financing. It also allows for a more “systems thinking” approach to energy efficiency that looks at system optimisation rather

29、 than simply at energy end use.Lastly, global collaboration, such as the excellent activities of the G20, is instrumental in ensuring harmonised approaches, peer-to-peer learning and stronger collective action.G20 Actions/RecommendationsEnergy efficiency is poised to play a crucial role in the circu

30、lar carbon economy and presents enormous potential to create transformative change in our global energy system.Energy efficiency investments have the capability to generate jobs and boost local economies while supporting the transition to a clean energy future.A broad approach will be most effective

31、. The wide diversity of measures available to policy makers provides the opportunity to integrate energy efficiency into policies across government and the economy. These measures include regulation, incentives, information campaigns, fiscal measures, voluntary agreements and more.Additionally, a gr

32、owing understanding of behavioural sciences supports the development of energy efficiency policies that are more effective and better adapted to the needs of communities.While across-the-board investment in energy efficiency is needed, a few high-priority sectors stand out as accounting for a signif

33、icant share of the potential benefits. One such sector is efficient space cooling in residential and non-residential buildings. Cooling is the fastest-growing energy end use globally and represents 12% of the worlds energy saving potential from efficiency.Investment and regulations to encourage upta

34、ke of high-efficiency air-conditioning technology should especially be prioritised by countries predicted to see growing demand for cooling services in the coming years. Enhancing international collaboration on this important subsector would support an accelerated global transition to cleaner and mo

35、re efficient cooling technologies, more effective building envelopes and more integrated cooling systems, such as district cooling.Digitalisation also represents a key emerging opportunity for more efficient energy systems. It supports system-wide efficiency by leveraging real-time data and advanced

36、 analytical and data processing capabilities to identify efficiencies and capture value. In fact, research shows that digitalisation could reduce energy demand from the global buildings sector by 10% by 2040. It also provides opportunities for consumers to better understand their own energy use and

37、improve household or facility efficiency, thus reducing waste and saving on energy costs an especially important factor during times of economic recovery. Importantly, digitalisation also offers greater potential for system-wide optimisation of supply and demand, and brings together the concepts of

38、flexibility and end-use efficiency in new and powerful ways.In all areas, energy efficiency policy making is clearly seen to benefit from international exchange and collaboration, which should be further encouraged.Energy Efficiency9Energy Efficiency Chapter01IntroductionEnergy efficiency within the

39、 context of the circular carbon economyAt the heart of the circular carbon economy are the four Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle and remove. The first R, reduce, is the first line of action. Energy efficiency solutions enable continued economic growth and better quality of life without commensurate growth

40、 in energy demand. Without energy efficiency progress, annual increases in economic activity would have significantly greater effects on global carbon emissions. In fact, energy efficiency improvements made between 2000 and 2018 were responsible for avoiding 13% additional energy use and 14% more ca

41、rbon emissions (IEA, 2019a; IEA, 2020a). Additionally, efficiency measures are projected to contribute half of potential emission reductions to 2030 and nearly 40% to 2050, as shown in Figure 1 below (IEA, 2019b).Energy efficiency policies can reduce energy intensity the energy needed to produce a u

42、nit of GDP. Improvements in energy efficiency support the transition to a circular carbon economyand ease the demand for the more costly or technologically advanced solutions covered by the reuse, recycle and remove factors. In fact, IEA analysis shows that investing in all energy efficiency technol

43、ogy opportunities that are affordable and readily available could see the size of the economy double while maintaining current levels of energy demand. In other words, if the global community realised all existing cost-effective energy efficiency potential now, we could halve energy intensity by 204

44、0 (IEA, 2018a).Gt CO240Stated Policies Scenario37%Eficiency32%RenewablesSustainable Development Scenario8%Fuel Switching3%Nuclear9%CCUS12%Other3020102000201820502075Figure 1. Additional reductions in CO2 emissions by measure under the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies

45、ScenarioSource. IEA (2019b), World Energy Outlook.The impact of the Covid-19 pandemicThe Covid-19 pandemic is primarily a global health crisis. In addition to the health impacts and tragic loss of life, the Covid-19 pandemic has major implications for global economies, energy use and carbon emission

46、s (Figure 2).From mid-March to mid-April 2020, the share of energy use affected by containment measures jumped from 5% to 50%. Initial IEA analysis of daily data collected for 30 countries showed that countries in full lockdown experienced an average 25% decline in energy demand per week, while coun

47、tries in partial lockdown averaged an 18% decline during that period.The full effects of the pandemic remain uncertain, but it is clear that it will have an impact on the uptake of energy efficiency, and on the wider energy system. It is estimated that total global energy demand for 2020 is projecte

48、d to drop by 6%, which is the largest relative decline in 70 years and the biggest ever decline in absolute terms. This is expected to lead to an 8% fall in energy-related CO2 emissions. While this would be the lowest level of emissions since 2010, the decline is almostentirely attributable to reduc

49、tions in economic activity, as opposed to structural changes in theenergy sector, meaning that emissions are likely to rebound as economies begin to return to business-as-usual operations.10080% of population60402001-Jan-201-Feb-201-Mar-201-Apr-201-May-201-Jun-20 Full Lockdown Non-Essential Business

50、es Closed Partial Lockdown Schools and Universities Closed Ban on Public GatheringsFigure 2. Share of global population under containment measures (IEA 2020)Source. IEA (2020b), Global Energy Review 2020.Trends before Covid-19Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, energy efficiency trends had suffered an u

51、nexpected slowdown. The 1990s, 2000s and early 2010s saw a steady improvement in global average energy intensity. The latest data show a decrease in improvement rates in all sectors. The transport sector is a notable exception to the recent slowdown, where fuel efficiency standards in major markets

52、have driven continued improvements in energy intensity.The average annual rate of improvement in global primary energy intensity between 2010 and 2017 was 2.2%, an improvement over the 1990-2010 rate of 1.3%. Falling from a high of nearly 3% in 2015, 2018 showed a 1.3% rate of improvement over 2017

53、the smallest improvement since 2010 (Figure 3). The 2019 rate of 2.0% is an upswing in this trend; however, when normalised for weather impacts, energy intensity only improved by 1.6% compared to the previous year (IEA, 2020c). Even with that deceleration, energy efficiency remains the largest contr

54、ibutor to emissions abatement, responsible for almost 70% of the decreases in energy demand seen in 2019 (IEA, 2020c).The past decades efforts have not met the annual intensity improvement rate needed to achieve the UNs Sustainable Development Goals, which include a target of doubling the global rat

55、e of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030. The global slowdown has only increased the urgency of action on energy efficiency improvement. To achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals energy intensity target, the global community will have to reach an average annual improvement rate of 3.0% ev

56、ery year until 2030 (IEA et al., 2020).-2.6%-3.0%-2.3%-2.0%-1.3%-1.7%-2.1%-2.1%-1.8%0%-1%-2%-3%201120122013201420152016201720182019Figure 3. Changes in global energy intensity 2011-19Source. IEA et al. (2020), Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress ReportCauses of slowdownAlthough energy efficiency con

57、tributed the most to energy intensity improvements in 2019 as illustrated in Figure 4, it yielded total energy savings 11% lower than in 2018. This decline reflects, in part, stagnation in the introduction of new energy efficiency policies in recent years. As of 2018, about one-third of the worlds e

58、nergy use was covered by efficiency policies with mandatory requirements. Increasing the coverage and strength of mandatory and other energy efficiency policies is a key lever to creating energy efficiency gains (IEA, 2019c).Energy efficiency obligation programmes covered 18% of global final energy

59、use in 2018, remaining flat compared to 2017. These programmes require energy companies to achieve an energy efficiency target typically, but not always, a set amount of energy savings. Voluntary schemes,as well as financial incentives, market-based instruments and capacity-building programmes, also

60、 play an important role. The breadth of coverage and the strength of these policies have only improved marginally in recent years. This lack of growth has been one of the key factors contributing to the slowing of energy intensity improvement.Regionally, trends have differed. The majority of energy