2020年航運報告（英）-68正式版

DNVreportshipping2020shipping202002:

shippiNg2020C

ontent

sexecutivesummaryintroduction0406Chapter1:trendsanddrivers08t??wo?ld?conomy?ndd?m?ndfo????bo?n????n??o??env??onm?n??l???ul???on?t?c?nolo?y?nd?n???y?ff?c??ncyFu?l???nd?10162024Chapter2:Futurescenarios26W?y?c?n???o??2830323436sc?n???oa:“Full????m????d”sc?n???oB:“Know?n?????o???”sc?n???oC:“s?nko??w?m”sc?n???oD:“in???dold?um?”Chapter3:technologyinvestment3840t?c?nolo?y?nv???m?n?–h???o??c?lu???k?ofn?w??c?nolo????–s???own???u?v?yChapter4:methodologyandassumptions4648M???odolo?y?nd???um???on?–s?mul???onmod?l–a??um???on?Chapter5:technologyuptakeinshipping2012–20205254t?c?nolo?yu???k??n??????n?2012–2020–r??ul??–B?ll???w????–sOX–NOX–CO2?nd?n???y?ff?c??ncy–Fu?lm?x?ndd?m?nd–s?n????v??y?n?ly???Chapter6:trendsanddriversbeyond20206264t??nd??ndd??v???b?yond2020–Fu?l–r??ul???on?–innov???on?nd?do???onofn?w?olu??on?shippiNg2020:03ExecutivesummaryBa?edontrend??nt?eworldeconomyandtran??ortdemand,mar?nere?ulat?on?andtec?nolo?y,we?avede?cr?bedfour?o???bledevelo?ment?at??a?wemovetoward?2020,scenar?o??toD.??e?e?cenar?o???ve?n?uttoa??mulat?onmodeldevelo?edtoa??e??l?kelytec?nolo?y?nve?tment?nt?eworldfleetfrom2012to2020.Thisprojecthasusedascenarioapproachtoassisttodescribelikelyoutcomesneedforlowsulphurfuel.Evengivenalargeontechnologyuptakeinthemaritimeindustry.ThefourscenariosA–Deachnumberofscrubbers,themajorpartoftheprovideadifferentpictureofhowtheshippingfleetwouldappearin2020.Thefleetwillrunondistillates.D?VestimatesthatthedemandforL??willbe8-33mil-scenariosaredescribedindetailslaterinthisreport,buttobetterappreciatethemainfindings,asdescribedbelow,thescenarioscanbesummarizedasfollows:liontonnesin2020,dependingonthesce-narioselected,theequivalentof400to1,700MMBtu.Theconsumptionof?FOwill,accordingtooursimulations,dropfromapproximately290milliontonnesin2019toonly80-110milliontonnesin2020,unlesstheglobalsulphurlimitisdelayed,inwhichcase?FOdemandwillbeover300milliontonnesannually.SCENA?IOA(“Fullsteamahead”):Higheconomicgrowth;highfuelprices;littleregulatoryorstakeholderpressureontheenvironmentSCENA?IOB(“Knowingtheropes”):Higheconomicgrowth;LNGpriceslowanddecoupledfromoilprices;highregulatoryandstakeholderpressureontheenvironmentSCENA?IOC(“Sinkorswim”):Loweconomicgrowth;lowfuelpricesingeneralbuthighdemandkeepsthemarinegasoil(MGO)pricesup;highregulatoryandstakeholderpressureontheenvironmentACDBNo?????onde?t?llate?40,000?????onde?t?llate?SCENA?IOD(“Inthedoldrums”):Loweconomicgrowth;LNGpricesdecoupledfromoilprices;lowregulatoryorstakeholderpressureontheenvironment.Finding3:Newbuildingsin2020willemitupto10to35%lessCO2thantoday’sships,andtheEnergyEfficiencyDesignIndex(EEDI)willbeadriverformorethanhalfofthereduction.Environmentallyefficientdesignswillgradu-allyimprovethroughoutthisdecadeandanewbuildingcontractedin2020will,depend-ingontype,emit10-35%lessCO2thanacurrentshipwithanEED?equaltothe?MOreferenceline.Thelargestreductionwillbeexperiencedwithtank,bulkandcontainervessels.Thisstudyhasidentifiedkeyfindingscon-cerningthemainregulatoryissues,highlight-ingimportantconsiderationsforshipownersandoperatorsintheperiodleadingupto2020.Thekeyfindingsfromthesimulationmodelaresummarizedhere.plyarethere.Wecouldseeuptohalfofthenewbuildingsbeingdeliveredwithgasfuelledenginesby2020.CADBFinding1:Morethan1in10newbuildingsinthenext8yearswillbedeliveredwithgasfuelledengines.NoLNgfuelled?????5,000LNgfuelled?????Thenumberofliquefiednaturalgas(L??)fuelledshipsthrough2020dependsheavilyonfuelprices.WithaL??price10%aboveheavyfueloil(?FO),7-8%ofnewbuildingsfrom2012to2020willbeabletorunonL??.?ftheL??pricegoesdownto30%below?FO,theuptakeofL??increasesto13%and,intheextremecaseofL??priceFinding2:In2020,thedemandformarinedistillatescouldbeashighas200-250milliontonnesannually.Thecurrentglobaldemandformarinedistil-oftheEED?requirements.EED?willbeanlatesisapproximately30milliontonnesimportantdriverfortheremainingreduc-annually.The0.1%limitinEmissionControltionsinparticularfrom2020forwardwhenBetweenone-thirdandone-halfofthisreductionwillbemotivatedbycost-efficiencyaloneandwouldbeimplementedregardlessAreas(ECA)willincreasethedemandto?hase2oftheEED?isimplemented,requir-ingnewshipstobe20%below?MOrefer-encelines.70%below?FO,theL??shareofnewbuild-approximately45-50milliontonnesby2015.ingsis30percent.?ntotalnumbers,13%isequivalenttoapproximately1,000ships.Theglobalsulphurlimit,ifeffectivebegin-ningin2020,combinedwiththe20%EED??owever,thelargestincreasewillbeexperi-encedin2020,withtheintroductionoftheglobalsulphurlimit.Thismarksahugeincreaseintheneedfordistillates,anABDCreductionrequirement,willhaveasignificantincreaseofupto200-250milliontonnes.No?crubber?20,000?crubber?impactontheimplementationofgasfuelledenginesprovidedthecapacityandfuelsup-?ntheshortterm,theuseofL??andscrub-berswillhaveonlyalimitedimpactonthe04:

shippiNg2020Finding4:Scrubbersareasignificantoptionafter2020.notenterintoforce,asignificantnumberofinstallationsoftreatmentsystemsisstillexpected.Thefulleffectoftheregulatoryrequirementsontechnologyuptakewillcomeafter2020,whenthe?MOglobalsulphurlimitand?hase2oftheEED?areimplemented.Thesearebyfarthestrongestdriversandmayleadtofundamentalchangesintheshippingindustry.Whentheglobalsulphurlimitisenforcedin2020,shipswouldberequiredtorunonlowsulphurfuelorcleantheexhaustcontinu-ously.Thiswillhaveasignificantimpactontheimplementationofscrubbers.Thistech-nologymaypotentiallybefittedtothousandsofshipsifthereisavailabilityandthecapacityThemainpeakisexpectedin2017,whenthelastshipswithmediumballastwatercapacityhavetoretrofitatthesametimeastherestofthefleethastostartretrofitting.After2019,theretrofittingisexpectedtobelargelytodeliver.?n?cenarioC,withhighL??pricecompleted.andM?Oprice,thenumberofscrubbersin2020isexpectedtobenearly20,000,whilein?cenariosBandD,13-14,000wouldbeCABDexpected.NoBWtreatmentBWtreatmentforall?????Theuncertaintyofwhetherthelimitwillbeenforcedin2020orin2025maydelaytheuseofscrubbers,asshipownerswouldnotbeexpectedtotakeontheadditionalcostwith-outthisbeingresolved.?n?cenarioA,theglobalsulphurlimitwillnotcomebeforeFinding6:Atleast30-40%ofnewbuildingswillbefittedwithEG?orSC?by2016.TheTier???80%reductionrequirementinECAsisthemainchallengefor?Ox.?n2025andthenumberofscrubbersinplacein?cenariosAandC,approximately40%of2020isverylimited.shipsbuiltbetween2016and2020willhaveimplementedanexhaustgasrecirculationEventhoughtheremaybeasignificantuptake(E?R)orselectivecatalyticreactors(?CR)ofscrubbersfrom2020,in?cenarioCwiththehighestL??andM?Oprice,whichisfavourableforscrubbers,therewouldonlybeamodest50installationsannuallyupto2019.system,whilein?cenariosBandD,thenum-bersareapproximately30%and35%respec-tively.Thedifferenceinfuelpricesseemstoaccountforthisdifference.WhenthepriceofL??islowcomparedtoM?O,?OxrequirementsaremetwithL??fuelledengines.D

CAB3,000?????>10%CO2reduct?on8,000?????>10%CO2reduct?onWithoutaTier???compliantengine,ashipbuiltafter2016willnotbeabletoenterthetwoexistingECAs.ThequestionthatremainstobeanswerediswhetherashipFinding5:BallastwatertreatmentsystemswillownerwilloptforaTier???engineevenifbeinstalledonatleasthalfoftheworldfleet.TheBallastWaterManagementConvention(BWMC)hasnotyetenteredintoforce,butthescheduleformandatorytreatmentofballastwaterisfixedindependentofwhentheconventionisratified.?naddition,theU?hasdecidedtoimplementasimilarschemeforallshipsinU?waters,whichwouldforceasignificantpartoftheworldfleettoimple-mentatreatmentsystemirrespectiveoftheshipisinitiallynotplannedforsailinginanECA,asthesecond-handvalueoftheshipmightbelowerduetothelossofgeographicflexibility.DCBANo?????w?t??g?orsC?2,500?????w?t??g?orsC?BWMCprogress.Forthetwo?cenariosAandB,whichassumetheballastconventiondoesshippiNg2020:05introduct?ons?????n?2020–are?ortontec?nolo?yu?takefort?emar?t?me??????n??ndu?try.W?entravell?n?aroundt?e?lobe,i?avere?eatedlybeena?kedt?e?ameque?t?on:W??c?tec?nolo??e?,knownorunknown,doyout??nkw?llbeado?tedbyt?e??????n??ndu?try?nt?eyear?tocome?W?ththeworldeconomy?nafrag?lecond?t?on,?t?snotonlyf?nanc?alanalysts,bankersandpol?cymakerswhowouldl?ketoknowwhattheworldw?lllookl?ketowardstheendofth?sdecade.Thesh?pp?ngcommun?ty?s,r?ghtly,ask?ngthesamequest?ons;Wh?chdr?versw?ll?nfluencetechnologycho?ces?ntheyearstocome?Wh?chtechnolog?esaremostl?kelytobeadoptedbythe?ndustry?inotherwords,basedonproject?onsandl?kely?eedlesstosay,therearenoprec?seanswerstothequest?onsd?scussed?nth?sreport.Thatsa?d,wecons?derD?Vtobeverywellpos?-t?onedto?dent?fyandd?scussfuturetechnol-ogytrends.Ourvo?ce?sgrounded?ntheexpert?seandsk?llsofourtrulyglobalworkforce.Theexper?encedprojectteambeh?ndth?sreportrepresentsallaspectsof?nternat?onalsh?pp?ng:commerc?al,techn?cal,regulatory,env?ronmentalandmodell?ng/s?mulat?onexperts.Thecoreprojectteamhascons?stedofOleV?dar??lsen,ToreLongva,Chr?sterFarstad,MagneBerg,Tor?lBend?ksvoll,Le?fBraute,?erge?chwalenstockerandJann?ckeW?ts?plus?mportantcontr?but?onfrommanyotherD?Vpeople.ThanksalsotoCoorMed?awh?chhasbeenrespons?bleforthedes?gnofthef?nalproduct.Furthermore,weenjoyclosework?ngrelat?on-sh?psw?thsh?powners,operators,yardsanddevelopmentscenar?os,andfromatechnologysuppl?ersfromallovertheworld.Wealsoperspect?ve,whatw?lltheworldfleetlookl?ke?n2020?workact?velyw?th?nternat?onalforums,suchastheiMO,flagstatesandmanyotherorgan-?sat?ons.Eachyearwerunhundredsofjo?nt?ndustryprojectsandothertechnologyqual?-f?cat?onprojectsw?ththemar?t?mecommun?ty,andwe?nvestcloseto6%ofourrevenue?nresearch&?nnovat?onact?v?t?es.Wehopewehavecommun?catedourenthu-s?asmforthesubject?nth?sreport,andwedohopeyouw?llenjoythefollow?ngpages–happyread?ng!ourobjectivehasbeentoshareourviewsontechnologyuptake?erhapsmost?mportantly,D?V?san?nde-pendentfoundat?onw?thnostakes?nthecommerc?alfateofanytechnologythatmaybeapreferredcho?ce?nthefuture.Regardlessoffuturetechnologycho?ces,ourpurpose?s,andw?llalwaysbe,to“safeguardl?fe,propertyandtheenv?ronment”.?artofth?spurpose?salsothustobethelead?ngf?rm?ntermsoftechnology.towards2020andbeyond,andtostimulatediscussionsaboutlikelyoptionsFortheindustry.?O??.sV?Ns?Npre??dent,DNVMar?t?meandO?l&ga??red?ct?ngthefuture?sar?skybus?ness.?owever,?nth?sreportwehavedonejustthat.Ourobject?vehasbeentoshareourv?ewsontechnologyuptaketowards2020andbeyond,andtost?mulated?scuss?onsaboutl?kelyopt?onsforthe?ndustry.Wew?lladressquest?onssuchashowweth?nkenv?ronmen-talregulat?onsw?ll?nfluencetheuseof?Ox,inthef?nalanalys?s,theresultsh?ngeonalloftheassumpt?onsmade,someofwh?charewelldocumentedandacknowledgedwh?leothersaremorecontent?ousord?ff?culttoquant?fy.Wehavebasedourscenar?osandassumpt?ons?Ox,BallastWater(BW)and?reenhouse?asoncomprehens?vel?teratureresearch,ques-(???)relatedtechnolog?es?nthefuture.W?llscrubbersdom?nate,orw?lltherebeas?gn?f?-cantsw?tchtoL?quef?ed?atural?as(L??)asfuel?Whatw?llthespeedof?mplementa-t?onbe?t?onna?res,externalforecastsand,f?nally,‘guesst?mates’wherenecessary.Thus,eventhoughth?s?snotasc?ent?f?creport?nwh?cheveryth?nghasbeenmet?culouslyquant?f?ed,weareconf?dentthattheresultspresentedprov?deasol?dgu?deastowhatwecanexpect?ntheyearstocome.06:

shippiNg2020shippiNg2020:0708:

shippiNg2020C?a??er1:Trendsanddriverss?????n???acom?lexandvola??le?ndu??ry??a???con??an?lynav??a??n???emany?w????and?urn?of??e?lobaleconomy.W??lecurren?ly?o?n???rou??a?ou????me,??e?ndu??ry??cycl?calbyna?ureand?a?ex?er?encedmany?eak?and?rou????n??e?a??.g?ven??ecom?lex??y??a?c?arac?er??e???e??????n??ndu??ry,?owcanone?red?c?w?a??ec?nolo??e?w?llbe?m?lemen?ed?n??eworldflee?by2020?in????c?a??er,welooka?four?m?or?an?dr?v?n?force?and?rend???a?webel?evew?ll?m?ac?fu?ure?ec?nolo?y‘u??ake’and??edevelo?men?of??eworldflee?a?wemove?oward?2020.t?ef?r???ar?of??ec?a??erou?l?ne???eeconom?cfac?or???a?mayaffec???edemandforand?u??lyofve??el?.t?e?econd?ar?of??ec?a??er?ake?aclo?erlooka???ere?ula?oryou?look,w??le??e???rd?ar?d??cu??e?var?ou??ec?nolo??e?a??olu??on??o??e?o???blefu?urere?ula?oryland?ca?e.in??ef?nal?ar?of??ec?a??er,we?akeaclo?erlooka?fuel?rend?and?o???bledevelo?men??n??e?r?ce?ofvar?ou??y?e?offuel.index????

t?eworldeconomyanddemandfor?eaborne?ran??or?????

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tec?nolo?yandener?yeff?c?ency????

Fuel?rend?10162024shippiNg2020:09????

Theworldeconomyanddemandforseabornetransportt?eworldeconomy??????lyde?enden?on??????n?,w??c?mee??a??rox?ma?ely85%of??e?lobaldemandfor?ran??or?.Over??me,c?an?e??n?lobal?row??areex?ec?ed?olead?oc?an?e??n??eworld’??eaborne?radecen?reof?rav??y.Theshippingmarketischaracterizedtoagreatdegreebymarketcycles.Thisgrownbyanaverageof30percent.Today,volatilitycreatesapotentialforhighprofits,butalsoforconsiderablelosses.Chinaisbyfarthelargestcontainermarket.Withthecurrentreducedlevelofworldeconomicgrowthcoincidingwithover-China’seconomicgrowthstartedinthe1990s.Duringthedecadebetween1998capacityintheglobalfleet,theshippingmarketisexperiencingtoughconditions.Thenextfewyearswillbecriticalforshippingandforthebalancebetweensup-plyanddemand.Threeeconomicareascurrentlydefinethemaritimetrade:NorthAmerica,EuropeandAsia.Theshiftintherelativeimportanceoftheseareaswillaffectthemaritimeindustrysubstantiallyintheyearstocome.and2008,Chinaadded1billiontonnesofseabornecargoandrepresented60%ofworldgrowthinseabornetrade.ThebulkcarriershippingboomwasdrivenbyChinesesteelproduction,whichpeakedatcloseto50milliontonnespermonthin2008.Animme-diatedemandforshippingresultedintherapidcontractingofnewvessels.?queezedshipyardcapacityledtosubstantialgrowthinnewbuildingprices.Forexample,newCapesizebulkpricesincreasedfrom$35-40millionin2003to$95-100millionin2008.?naddition,in2008-2009,theworldshippingorderbookwascloseto50%oftheexistingworldfleet.Duringthepastdecades,theworldeconomyhasdemonstratedstablegrowth,occasionallyinterruptedbyrecessionsofdifferentmagni-tudes.?n2009-2010,theworldeconomywasThereafter,theworldsituationchanged;thecanalwasreopenedandU?oilimportsshrank,resultinginlowerthanexpectedoveralldemand.Thisledtoaweakshippinginitsweakeststatesincethe?reatDepressionmarketduringthe1980s.Thepoormarketofthe1930s,butithasbeenslowlyrecoveringconditionscausedbankruptcies,distresssalessince.Ascanbeseeninthe?gurebelow,worldeconomicgrowthandthedemandforseabornetransportarecloselylinked.Agen-eralobservationisthatduringperiodsoflowworld?rossDomestic?roduct(?D?)growth,thevolumeofseabornetradeshrinks.oftonnageandhigherscrappingrates.Thesituationstartedtoimproveduringthe1990s.From2002,globalisationandtherapiddevel-opmentofAsianeconomieshaveledtoagreatdealofaddeddemandintheshippingmarket.Thisresultedinunprecedentedcontractingofnewtonnage,boostingtheorderbookbyasmuchas500percent.Thefinancialcrisisin2008ledtoworldtradeshrinkingdramatically.?aturally,thiscreatedasubstantialoversupplyoftonnageinthemarketwhichinevitablyledtodepressedfreightratesandweakmarketsingeneral.?ince1995,therehavebeenrelativelylargevariationsinthegrowthoftheworldfleetandseabornetrade.Therelationshipbetweenthedemandforshippingandthecapacityofthefleetwasquitebalancedduringthe1960s.Thiswasfollowedbyaperiodofheavyinvestmentinshippingduringthe1970s,withincreasingU?importsandtheclosingofthe?uezCanal.regionalvariationsChangesinmerchantshiptradepatternshavetraditionallyfollowedregionalvariationsinworldgrowth.?nthe1970s,thecontainertradewasdominatedbyJapan,whereas,since2000,China’sannualcontainertradehas14%12%10%8%6%4%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%9%7%5%3%1%2%0%-1%1995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%-3%-5%-7%TotalfleetSeabornetradeSeabornetrade(left-handaxis)WorldGDP(right-handaxis)F??ure1:t?erela??on????be?weengDp?row??and?eaborne?rade?row??.source:Clark?on?e?earc?serv?ce?L?d.F??ure2:grow???n??eworldflee?and?o?al?eaborne?rade(foreca???ncluded).source:ihsglobalin?????ands?ida?aa?ofFebruary2012.10:

shippiNg2020despitetheuncertaintytiedtodevelopmentsintheglobaleconomy,therearesomebrightspotsinboththecountryandindustryoutlooks.?rowthtrendsincommoditiesare?resumedtocontinue.Theca?acityoftheworldfleetisex?ectedto?rowdurin?thenexttenyears.???Fair?layestimatesthatthetotalfleet,measuredinmilliondwt,willincreasebya??roximately50%betweennowand2020,basedonannualeconomic?rowthof3.3?ercent.Thissu?-?eststhatanavera?eof1,700to2,000newvesselswillbecontractedforineachyear.201520104.84.21.30.63.43.11.00.4implicationsBilliontonnesTheshi??in?marketiscurrentlyinatrou?h.Thevesselsthatwereordereddurin?themarketboomarenowbein?delivered,add-in?tothedifficultyofadjustin?totoday’slessfavourableeconomicsituation.?twilltakesomeyearsbeforethecurrentoversu??lyisabsorbed.0123456789101112DryBulkLiquidBulkContainerGeneralCargoF??ure3:seabornetradebycommod?ty(foreca?t?ncluded).Databa?edu?onihsglobalin????ta?ofJuly2011.source:ihsglobalin????tands?idataa?ofFebruary2012.AstheBR?CKT?Mcountriesareex?ectedtohavehi?her?rowthratesthantheWesternworld,itisassumedthatthecentreof?ravityofeconomic?owerwillcontinuetoshift.Trade?atternschan?eandconsequentlytherelativewei?htsofshi??in?traderoutesareex?ectedtodothesame,increasin?the?oweroftheemer?in?economiesattheex?enseoftheOECDcountries.WorldgDp?rowthwasestimatedtoshrinkbyofferevenmorecom?etitive?ricesasthey4.2%in2010andby3%in2011,andbea??roximately2.7%in2012.China’secon-omyhasshownalotofresilienceandre?re-sents80%ofthegDpinEastAsiaandthepacificre?ion,butits?rowthrateisex?ectedtodecreaseto7.8%in2012.TheEurozoneoutlookisuncertainduetothesoverei?ndebtcrisis,asareits?otentialne?ativere?er-cussioneffectsonthe?lobaleconomy.?raduallyrunoutoforders.?ewbuildin??riceshavealreadyfallenonavera?ebymorethan40%com?aredto2008.outlookLookin?ahead,weareinfora?eriodofchan?einworldeconomic?ower.ThecentreofeconomicactivitywillshifttowardAsia.U?fiscalchallen?esareex?ectedtobemana?e-able.Therearebri?ht?ros?ectswithinsomeindustries,es?eciallytheener?ysector.TheUKandgermanyhaveshown?ositivesi?nsofrecovery;however,recentdatasu??estthatbotheconomiesareflattenin?out.Thesover-Thechan?esintheworldeconomyand?lobalseabornetrans?ortdescribedabove?rovidethe?remisesforhowthevariousshi?se?mentswillevolve.?nthenextsections,wewilltakeacloserlookattheresultin?trendsinthemainshi?se?mentscoveredintheDes?itetheuncertaintytiedtodevelo?mentsinthe?lobaleconomy,therearesomebri?hts?otsinboththecountryandindustryout-looks.globalseabornetradehasrecoveredfromtherecessionin2010,increasin?by8.6%in2010and7.4%in2011,andisantici-?atedto?rowanother8.5%in2012.ei?ndebtcrisisinEuro?eisstillinthebalance.re?ort.Brazil,Russia,?ndia,China,Korea,Turkey,?ndonesiaandMexico(BR?CKT?M)stillhavestron?develo?ment?otentialandtheirgDp?erca?ita??uresareex?ectedtoincreasesubstantially,bya??roximately30%betweennowandtheyear,2015.?tisassumedthatby2020,40%ofworldeconomicactivitywilltake?laceinAsia.ThetotalworldgDp?rowthisex?ectedtoremainfairlystableata??roxi-mately3.3%annuallythrou?h2030.Thetotalseabornetradeisantici?atedto?rowbyanavera?eof6%year-on-yeartowards2016.TheDes?iterelativelystron??rowthinseabornetrade,su??lyisstilloverwhelmin?.?ence,nomajormarketim?rovementsareex?ectedintheshortterm.Thenewvesselsorderedin2011accountedfor72milliondeadwei?httonnes(dwt),downfrom151milliondwtin2010,andthis??ureisex?ectedtoremainlow.Ashrinkin?orderbookwillincreasethe?ressureonyards,whichwillbeforcedtoshippiNg2020:11TrendsinthetankermarketThecrudeoiltankermarketiscurrentlysufferingfromaverydepressedsituationwithanabundanceoftonnage.Ownergroupshavebeenlosingmoneyforalongtimeandsomecompaniesareonthebrinkofbankruptcy.?ignificantdeliveriesofcrudetankersin2012maydepressratesfurther.?crappingcanonlypartlyeasethechal-lowerconsumptionisnoticeable.?owever,whilethecurrentorderbookforproducttankersislimited,someownersbelievethismarketwillpickupsoonerthanthecrudetankermarket.thismarket,especiallyfrom2015-2020,andevenmoresobeyond2020.Basedonthis,weexpectarapidexpansionofL??bunkeringnetworks.By2020,oilimportstoChinaand?ndiaareThedemandforL??isontherise,newL??likelytohaveincreasedcomparedto2012plantsarebeingbuiltinmanycountriesandlevels.ThesupplywillcomeprimarilyfromtheMiddleEast,AfricaandRussia,andalsobypipeline.?ubstantiallyhigheroilproduc-tionlevelsfromoffshoreBrazilareexpected.Currently,Brazil’soffshoreproductionis2millionbarrelsperday(mbd).Thisisexpectedtoincreaseto4mbdby2017and5mbdby2020.Meanwhile,U?crudeimportswillfocusonshorterhauls,mainlyfrom?outhAmerica.lengesinthismarket.ThegrowthindemandL??carriersareenjoyingveryhighratesduewillpredominantlycomefromnon-OECDcountries.tothesurgeinconsumption,resultinginapositiveoutlookfortheL??shipsegment.Theproducttankermarketisalsostrugglingwithoversupplyandissubjecttocontinuouschangesinimportneedsandtradepatterns.Thereductionintrans-AtlantictradeduetoTheL??marketisdependentondevelop-mentsinthegaspriceandonenvironmentalpressuretousecleanerfossilfuel.WearelikelytoseecontinuedgrowthindemandinTankerownershaveexperiencedstrongpressurefromoilmajorsformanyyears,aswellasvettingschemeswithrespecttothequalityandintegrityofvessels,andthistrendisexpectedtocontinue.?npart,thisisduetothefactthatoilcompaniesgenerallyhaveveryhightechnicalandoperationalstandardsforoiltankers.Additionally,asbunkerpricesremainhigh,theunittransportcostisadriverforfuelefficiency,asinallshippingmarkets.?rovidedthescrappingratepicksupanddemandforcrudetankercapacityfollowsthegrowthinChinesedemandandinthenumberofoilsupplysources,wemayexpectthemarkettobeinbalancewellbefore2020.295.233.933.3125.022.836.983.845.7116.7179.9118.463.583.028.986.045.428.628.8129.6227.136.8109.339.520.0USCanadaMexico37.6SouthandCentralAmericaEuropeandEurasiaMiddleEast21.343.7AfricaAsiaPacific24.1F??ure4:M?joro?ltr?demovement??n2010.source:Bpst?t??t?c?lrev?ewofWorld?ner?y2010.10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%F??ure5:annu?l?rowt??nt?ecrudeo?lt?nkerfleet?ndcrudeo?l?e?bornetr?de(forec??t?ncluded).source:ihsglob?lin????t?ndsaid?t???ofFebru?ry2012.CrudeoiltankerfleetCrudeseabornetrade12:

shippiNg2020TrendsinthedrybulkmarketThedominantfactorsforthedrybulkmar-ketarecommoditysupplyindustriessuchasenergy,manufacturingandconstruction.Aswehavediscussedpreviously,worldtradingactivityiscloselycorrelatedtoglobal?D?levels.?nthepast,theeconomiesoftheU?,EuropeandJapanhaveactedastheprimarydriversofthedrybulktrademarket.?owever,thecontributionsofChina,?ndiaandBrazilarebecomingmoreimportantasthesecountries’?D?growthratesaresignifi-asglobalsteeldemandissettoincreasesignifi-cantlyhigherthanthoseofthedevelopedcountries.Chinaisbyfarthelargestcon-tributor,andhasbeensoforthepastfiveyears.Despitethis,timecharterratesinthewholemarketaresignificantlydownsincethe2003-2008period.Thecontinuoussupplyofnewshipsthroughout2012and2013duetothelargeorderbookisasignificantcontributortotheprolongeddeflatedmarket,andtheoutlooktowards2020remainschallenging.AustraliaandBrazilaretheworld’slargestironoreexportersandChina