某公司項(xiàng)目管理及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力1課件

1、時(shí) 間 安 排 與 后 勤Time Arrangement開(kāi)始結(jié)束時(shí)間 9:00-17:00Start/End: 9:00-17:00休息時(shí)間 : 10:30-10:45Tea Break: 15:00-15:15午餐（Lunch)：12:00-13:30點(diǎn)心、茶水請(qǐng)到休息室自用Tea & Coffee: Please help yourself注意事項(xiàng):上課時(shí)務(wù)請(qǐng)關(guān)閉手機(jī)，BP機(jī)Attention: Please Turn Off your MP & BP 謝謝合作!Thanks!授課的風(fēng)格 在教會(huì)學(xué)員如何使用管理工具的同時(shí),重點(diǎn) 灌輸一種新的管理理念平臺(tái)，使其能 在自已的平臺(tái)上自由使用各種

2、工具！Training style Focus on the latest management rational knowledge platform while teaching how to use the management tools, this is in order to let the participants use the tools freely from their platform. 項(xiàng)目管理的PPT項(xiàng)目的定義The Definition of a Project組織單位Organization Unit固定預(yù)算Fix Budget固定時(shí)間Fix Time按一定的技

3、術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Quality Assurance資源的利用Resource Utilization交付結(jié)果Delivery Result項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn)Specifications of a Projecta) 具體的起始時(shí)間（ The exact starting time)b) 具體的終止日期（ The exact finishing date)c) 嚴(yán)格定義的最終目標(biāo)（The exact definition of the final goal)d) 只發(fā)生一次（Only one time)e) 包含有時(shí)間（T），質(zhì)量（Q）和成本（C）的詳細(xì)計(jì)劃（Including Time, Quality and

4、Cost)f) 有具體的結(jié)果（The exact Result)g) 隨時(shí)都具有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性（Full of the Risk)示例Case Discussion為中學(xué)生設(shè)計(jì)一種新型的尋呼機(jī)，計(jì)劃于1995年12月推向市場(chǎng)。Design a new BP for the middle school student, It is planned to be into the market in December, 1995.示例Case Discussion使用計(jì)算機(jī)編寫(xiě)備忘錄Using the computer to edit the RAM重要提示：項(xiàng)目必須滿(mǎn)足其所有特征Importance:

5、All the project specifications MUST be 100% satisfied判斷哪些活動(dòng)屬于項(xiàng)目Which one is projectYNYYNN計(jì)劃出國(guó)做商務(wù)旅行Plan a business trip to another country 打電話(huà)Make a telephone call組裝一臺(tái)新型計(jì)算機(jī)Assemble a new model computer蓋新樓Erect a building面試應(yīng)聘者Interview applicants制作家具Produce furniture興建水庫(kù)Establish a reservoirYNYYYNY修理汽

6、車(chē)Repair a car設(shè)計(jì)一門(mén)新課程Design a new curriculum組織對(duì)計(jì)劃進(jìn)行講評(píng)Organize a program review與成功企業(yè)進(jìn)行比較并學(xué)其優(yōu)勢(shì)Benchmark successful enterprises使用殺蟲(chóng)劑Apply pesticide開(kāi)發(fā)新軟件Develop a new software判斷哪些活動(dòng)屬于項(xiàng)目Which one is project什么是“管理”（What is called “Management”)能夠按實(shí)際情況自行設(shè)計(jì)從“目標(biāo)”的選定，到“資源”的利用，通過(guò)采用不同的“計(jì)劃”和“監(jiān)控”的各種工具，達(dá)到滿(mǎn)意“結(jié)果”的整個(gè)系統(tǒng)

7、叫“管理”。操作這個(gè)系統(tǒng)的人叫“經(jīng)理人”。A person, or a group, or a team who is able to set up the confirmation of the“Goal” to the utilization of the “Resource” through the different tools of the “Plan” & “Supervision” in order to achieve the final satisfied “Result”. 交付結(jié)果Deliver the Result最終目的Final Goal什么是“項(xiàng)目管理”（What

8、 is called “Project Management”) 即 That is項(xiàng)目定義Project Definition管理方法Management Method項(xiàng)目管理的平臺(tái)Platform of PM對(duì)TQC的管理Management of TQC項(xiàng)目管理在PMI中的解釋是：The PM Explanation in PMI將各種知識(shí)、技能、工具和技術(shù)應(yīng)用于項(xiàng)目之中，以達(dá)到項(xiàng)目的要求。項(xiàng)目管理是通過(guò):Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project

9、 activities to meet project requirements.Project management is accomplished through the use of the processes such as:來(lái)完成的。啟動(dòng)Initiating計(jì)劃Planning實(shí)施Executing控制Controlling收尾Closing超大型項(xiàng)目的管理Super Large Project Management宏觀 近期微觀 宏觀 下期微觀工作包Work Package時(shí)間TimeRolling Waving Approach（RWA）項(xiàng)目管理的三角關(guān)系The trial An

10、gle RelationshipTimeCostQualityScope in PMI項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理Project Manager技術(shù)質(zhì)量Technical Quality領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者/決策者Leader/Decision Maker計(jì)劃者/分析家Planner/Analyst組織者/協(xié)調(diào)者Organizer/Coordinator管理者/評(píng)估人Manager/Appraiser項(xiàng)目管理的三大“層面”Three “l(fā)ayers”in PM1. 投資人(Investors)_項(xiàng)目管理人（Project Managers)_職能執(zhí)行人（Operation Managers)_你在哪里？Where are yo

11、u?通用管理技能（Key General Management Skills)(1)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力（Leading)區(qū)別“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)”與“管理”Deference between the “Leader” & “Manager”“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)”確定方向，動(dòng)員人員（統(tǒng)一意志），調(diào)動(dòng)與鼓舞。“Leader”-Establishing direction, Aligning people, Motivating and Inspiring.“管理”注重結(jié)果，只為投資人負(fù)責(zé)?！癕anager”-Focus on result, only responsible for Stakeholder.通用管理技能（Key Gen

12、eral Management Skills)(2)交流溝通（Communicating)原則：(Basic Requirement)a)信息發(fā)出者要負(fù)責(zé)保證信息清晰明確、毫不含混、內(nèi)容完整，使接收者正確無(wú)誤地接收到信息。The sender is responsible for making the information clear, unambiguous, and complete, so that the receiver can receive it correctly, and for confirming that it is properly understood.b)信息接

13、收者要負(fù)責(zé)保證所收到的信息完整無(wú)缺，理解正確。The receiver is responsible for making sure that the information is received in its entirety and understood correctly. SenderReceiverMedium(channel)Medium(channel)Feedback反饋Information信息溝通渠道等于：Communication Channel Equals:N：為參與該項(xiàng)目管理的人數(shù) Personal Numbers in the PMN(N-1)2溝通渠道Comm

14、unication Channel通用管理技能（Key General Management Skills)(3)談判能力(Negotiating)在項(xiàng)目管理中,以下5個(gè)方面是經(jīng)常性、反復(fù)性談判的對(duì)象:During the course of a typical project, project staff is likely to negotiate for any or all of the following:范圍、成本和進(jìn)度目標(biāo)Scope, cost, and schedule objectives.范圍、成本和進(jìn)度變更Changes to scope, cost, or schedu

15、le.c. 合同條款和條件Contract terms and conditions.d. 任務(wù)分工Assignments.e. 資源Resources.通用管理技能（Key General Management Skills)(4)解決問(wèn)題的能力(Problem Solving)問(wèn)題的定義（Problem Definition):內(nèi)在Internal表面Surface內(nèi)部Inside外部Outside技術(shù)Technical管理Management人際Interpersonal相應(yīng)對(duì)策（Decision Making): 分析Analyzing定義Indentify確定Confirm方法Met

16、hod經(jīng)驗(yàn)Experience通用管理技能（Key General Management Skills)（5）對(duì)組織產(chǎn)生影響（Influencing the Organization)“把事情辦成”的能力（“Get things Done”)對(duì)所有的利害關(guān)系人（Stakeholders)要了解、掌握、透徹。To Understand, Support, Clarify all the stakeholders.項(xiàng)目中的三駕馬車(chē)：Three Horses in Project 職能部門(mén)經(jīng)理Manager in Dept.項(xiàng)目成員Project Members項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人Project Manage

17、r項(xiàng)目管理的基本平臺(tái)Basic Platform of PM管理“系統(tǒng)”（ Manage “System”)你用什么“系統(tǒng)”（What “System” you use?)管理“人”（ Manage “People”)你準(zhǔn)備怎么用“人”（What kind of “People”are you gonging to use?)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理的目標(biāo)The Goal of Project Manager-TQC-團(tuán)隊(duì)的全面領(lǐng)導(dǎo)Team Leader-對(duì)團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的培訓(xùn)Training the Team-對(duì)項(xiàng)目的組織結(jié)構(gòu)的掌控Manage the Project Team Structure職能經(jīng)理的目標(biāo)T

18、he Goal of Operation Manager-對(duì)項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行人員進(jìn)行分專(zhuān)業(yè)的部署 Breakdown the specified job to the specified Operational Team-對(duì)工人進(jìn)行必要的專(zhuān)業(yè)培訓(xùn) Specified Training is needed for the Workers項(xiàng)目生命周期識(shí)別需求提出方案執(zhí)行項(xiàng)目結(jié)束項(xiàng)目投入力量時(shí)間項(xiàng)目管理重要性的原因 Reasons of the Importance in PM -歷史原因: (Historical Reason) 對(duì)傳統(tǒng)組織結(jié)構(gòu)的挑戰(zhàn) (Challenge the traditional

19、managerial structure)多變性和高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性(Easy Changeable & High Risk) -事業(yè)發(fā)展原因：(Career Developmental Reasons)項(xiàng)目管理技能大于專(zhuān)業(yè)經(jīng)理， 廠長(zhǎng)的技能(Skill of PM is much more than the skill from Special Manager & Factory Director完美的溝通能力(Perfect Communication Ability)理論加實(shí)踐的完美體現(xiàn)(Theory+Practice)-學(xué)術(shù)原因：(Academic Reasons)是管理學(xué)科中的一個(gè)最重要的基本

20、要素(It is the basic element in the science of management)累積成功的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，以傳后人(Share the Successful Experience)累積失敗的教訓(xùn)，以敝后人(Realize the Failure)項(xiàng)目的市場(chǎng)化定義Definition of PM Marketing-由已完成的市場(chǎng)來(lái)生成項(xiàng)目New Project Comes from the Existing Market-由項(xiàng)目本身延伸成另一項(xiàng)目New Project Comes from its Original One*-特殊需要*Special Requiremen

21、t 最終產(chǎn)出 結(jié)果明確 Final Result Result Clearance最終目標(biāo)和階段目標(biāo)Final Goal & Stage Objective n P：最終目標(biāo)(Final Goal) =P pi: 階段目標(biāo) (Stage Objective) pi=1P：最終的產(chǎn)出和交付（Goals are General Statements of Out comes)pi: 各階段的具體工作（Objectives are Specific Statements of Actions) 最終目標(biāo)特征-SMARTSpecifications of FG明確性（Specific)可度量性 (Me

22、asurable)可完成性 (Achievable)相關(guān)性 (Relevant)可跟蹤性 (Track able)最終目標(biāo)說(shuō)明Statement for FG-專(zhuān)業(yè)語(yǔ)言(Specific Terms)-簡(jiǎn)明扼要 (Simple with Importance)-符合實(shí)際 (Conform to Reality)管理要領(lǐng) 1Keys of Management No.1事有“本末”， “輕重”， “緩急”。 關(guān)門(mén)是“本”，加高籠子是“末“。舍本而逐末， 當(dāng)然就不得要領(lǐng)了。管理是什么？管理是抓事情的“本末”，“輕重”，“緩急”。There are “Important & Not importan

23、t”, “Urgent & Not urgent” in every Management which is Focus on “Beginning & Ending”, “Important & Not important”, “Urgent & Not urgent” .管理要領(lǐng) 2Keys of Management No.2 事后控制不如事中控制，事中控制不如事前控制。 可惜大多數(shù)的經(jīng)營(yíng)者和管理者都忽略這一點(diǎn)，等到錯(cuò)誤和失控造成重大的損失才尋求彌補(bǔ)之時(shí)，有時(shí)雖然是亡羊補(bǔ)牢，但已是為時(shí)已晚。 Control after the Happening is worse than Contro

24、lling in the Middle. Control in the Middle is still worse than Controlling before Happening.管理要領(lǐng) 3 Keys of Management No.3 管理者工作時(shí)最好用簡(jiǎn)單的語(yǔ)言和易懂的言詞來(lái)傳達(dá)信息，特別要掌握說(shuō)話(huà)的對(duì)象和時(shí)機(jī)。有時(shí)過(guò)分的修飾反而達(dá)不到自己的目的。 Managers should use the most Specific, Simple & Understandable Language to Pass the Information to the persons under y

25、our Management. Any over Modification will make Misunderstanding from the persons under your Management.階段目標(biāo)特征Specification of Stage Objective5W+2HWhen-Where-Why-What-WhoHow to do?How much?最終和階段目標(biāo)的評(píng)估標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Appraisal Standard of FG & SO-歸屬性（Belonging)-量化 (Numeric)-商業(yè)價(jià)值化 (Commercial Value)-社會(huì)影響化 (Socializa

26、tion)-重點(diǎn)化 (Importance)項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃Project Plan Pf Pi WBS T/wbs C/wbs Pf:最終目標(biāo)（FG） Pi：階段目標(biāo)（SO） WBS：工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（Work Breakdown Structure)T/wbs: 單項(xiàng)工作包所需時(shí)間C/wbs:單項(xiàng)工作包所需成本魚(yú)刺圖（Mind Mapping)中心主題Central Word關(guān)鍵詞Key Word 1關(guān)鍵詞Key Word 2關(guān)鍵詞Key Word 3關(guān)鍵詞Key Word 4關(guān)鍵詞Key Word 5審查與評(píng)估質(zhì)量技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)財(cái)務(wù)審查專(zhuān)家評(píng)定零備件周轉(zhuǎn)數(shù)量招聘HR評(píng)定小組面試手冊(cè)存放歸類(lèi)設(shè)施數(shù)量品名規(guī)格

27、庫(kù)存管理財(cái)務(wù)反饋MRPGSM售后服務(wù)處的建立品名分類(lèi)位置設(shè)備調(diào)試數(shù)量新機(jī)器培訓(xùn)教室小組負(fù)責(zé)人考核WBS的定義工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)是以交付成果為導(dǎo)向的項(xiàng)目各組成部分的一種分解結(jié)構(gòu)。它對(duì)項(xiàng)目的總范圍進(jìn)行組織分解和定義。未列入工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)圖中的工作不屬于項(xiàng)目范圍內(nèi)的工作。A Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a deliverable-oriented grouping of project components that organizes and defines the total scope of the project; work not in the WBS is

28、 outside the scope of the project.WBS表（工作分解表）樣機(jī)參展 生產(chǎn)樣機(jī)運(yùn)輸樣機(jī)布置展臺(tái)資料歸類(lèi)展機(jī)結(jié)束 人員安排 1.1 設(shè)計(jì)1.2 生產(chǎn)1.3 調(diào)試2.2安全指令2.1聯(lián)絡(luò)運(yùn)輸公司3.1設(shè)計(jì)3.3效果3.2裝修4.1分送歸類(lèi)4.2布置5.1展臺(tái)值班名單5.3訪客接待5.2專(zhuān)題會(huì)議6.1運(yùn)輸公司6.2安全圖表式的WBS寫(xiě)一本間諜小說(shuō)背景材料的搜集故事大綱故事寫(xiě)作出版商圖書(shū)館采訪初步構(gòu)思精練構(gòu)思第一章。出版商的了解樣稿送審美國(guó)-蘇聯(lián)關(guān)系其他間諜 故事刊登有當(dāng)前事件的期刊華盛頓和莫斯科地圖訪問(wèn)情報(bào)機(jī)構(gòu)訪問(wèn)軍事部門(mén)訪問(wèn)民事機(jī)構(gòu) 聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局和州部門(mén)有關(guān)采訪當(dāng)?shù)鼐?/p>

29、WBS的一些經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)（1）一般不超過(guò)5層，如超過(guò)即外包。（2）以80小時(shí)為界線(xiàn)，或80小時(shí)/周為界線(xiàn)。（3）也可用交付（Deliverable)、產(chǎn)品零件(Component)、階段(Phase)、地區(qū)(Area)、主要任務(wù)(Major Task)、功能(Function)來(lái)劃分。（4）不可分割部分稱(chēng)為工作包（Work package)確定WBS是否已分解到足夠詳細(xì)的一層是否需要改善WBS元素的成本估算和時(shí)間進(jìn)度估算的精確度？WBS要素的負(fù)責(zé)人是否超過(guò)一人？WBS的要素是否包含了多個(gè)交付成果或?qū)嵤┻^(guò)程？是否需要分別定義工作過(guò)程的成本或WBS內(nèi)的交付成果？是否需要更精確地了解WBS內(nèi)的工作過(guò)程的

30、時(shí)間進(jìn)度？不同WBS的要素內(nèi)的交付成果是否相互依賴(lài)？WBS內(nèi)過(guò)程中的工作實(shí)施是否有明顯的時(shí)間間隔？某一要素對(duì)資源的需求一段時(shí)間內(nèi)會(huì)變化嗎？衡量WBS某一元素進(jìn)度的明確的目標(biāo)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)存在嗎？這些驗(yàn)收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在WBS的要素全部完成前還適用嗎？WBS中的一些要素是否存在一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)需要特別的注意？WBS要素中的某一部分是否可作為單獨(dú)的單元來(lái)做時(shí)間進(jìn)度計(jì)劃？項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理，項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)，以及其他利害關(guān)系者包括客戶(hù)對(duì)WBS的要素有清晰和完全的理解嗎？是否有利害關(guān)系者有興趣WBS某一要素的現(xiàn)狀和業(yè)績(jī)？估算各項(xiàng)工作（階段目標(biāo)）運(yùn)作周期Estimation of Time on Every WBS-已完成的類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目(Already

31、 Completed Similar Project)-歷史數(shù)據(jù)（可從其他項(xiàng)目中） Data from other Projects in History-專(zhuān)家意見(jiàn)(Suggestions from Experts &Specialists)估算各項(xiàng)工作（階段目標(biāo)）運(yùn)作周期Estimation of Time on Every WBS1.標(biāo)桿類(lèi)比法（Benchmark)2.專(zhuān)家判斷（Delphi Technique)是一種專(zhuān)家咨詢(xún)方式。它是通過(guò)匿名或背對(duì)背的咨詢(xún)方式達(dá)到意見(jiàn)一致，經(jīng)常用于項(xiàng)目某些要素的估算，如：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等。A process where a consensus view is re

32、ached by consultation (often not face-to-face) with experts. Often used as an estimating.項(xiàng)目因素的評(píng)分表使用Delphi法對(duì)各因素的優(yōu)劣進(jìn)行打分評(píng)價(jià)，分值范1-10,1表示最差情況，10表示最好情況。根據(jù)各種因系的相對(duì)重要性，采用Delphi法確定權(quán)數(shù)，本方法的權(quán)數(shù)范圍1-3，即3表示最重要，1表示最不重要。將打分值乘以權(quán)數(shù)，即為各因素的評(píng)份值。顯然評(píng)份范圍在1-30。將因素組內(nèi)的諸因素相加，可得因素組評(píng)分值，各因素組評(píng)分值之和便是相應(yīng)因素的評(píng)分值。評(píng)價(jià)滿(mǎn)意解的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)如下：1.因素打分值不小于3；2.因素組

33、評(píng)分值的實(shí)際/最大比不小于50%；3.要素評(píng)分值的實(shí)際/最大比不小于50%；4.總評(píng)分值的實(shí)際/最大比不小于60%。同時(shí)滿(mǎn)足上述四個(gè)條件的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理方案是最滿(mǎn)意的。項(xiàng)目要素的評(píng)分表質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn) Quality Standard行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（國(guó)內(nèi)級(jí)別，國(guó)際級(jí)別） Standard in Same Industry (National Class & International Class)特殊標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（特需項(xiàng)目） Special Standard (Special Required Project)同類(lèi)產(chǎn)品標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（技術(shù)含量） Standard in Same Products( Technical Qualif

34、ication)用戶(hù)指定 Customer SpecifiedPDCA循環(huán) (改善提升)P-PLAN D-DOA-ACTION C-CHECKPDCA 循環(huán)P: 計(jì)劃D: 實(shí)施C: 確認(rèn)A: 措施戴明（Deming）質(zhì)量控制理論朱蘭（Juran）質(zhì)量三重理論質(zhì)量計(jì)劃：識(shí)別誰(shuí)是客戶(hù)確定客戶(hù)需求以我們的語(yǔ)言來(lái)定義客戶(hù)的需求開(kāi)發(fā)能滿(mǎn)足客戶(hù)需求的產(chǎn)品使產(chǎn)品的特征最優(yōu)化以滿(mǎn)足我們和客戶(hù)的需求質(zhì)量改進(jìn)：制定能進(jìn)行產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)的程序使程序最優(yōu)化質(zhì)量控制：證明程序能在現(xiàn)有的生產(chǎn)環(huán)境下以最少的檢驗(yàn)生產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)品將程序用于生產(chǎn)營(yíng)運(yùn)科勞斯比(Crosbys)的質(zhì)量管理的四條原則質(zhì)量的定義是與需求一致，而不是“善意的舉動(dòng)”或

35、“典雅的外表”。預(yù)防系統(tǒng)保證質(zhì)量，而不是評(píng)估（檢驗(yàn)）。業(yè)績(jī)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)必須是零差錯(cuò)，而不是“這很接近了”的態(tài)度。衡量質(zhì)量是“不一致的代價(jià)”，而不是“指數(shù)”。七項(xiàng)傳統(tǒng)質(zhì)量控制工具流程圖 Flowcharts;散點(diǎn)圖 Work-flow/Scatter diagrams;帕累托圖 Pareto charts;因果圖 Cause and effect diagrams;直方圖 Histogram;控制圖 Control charts;檢查表 Check sheets;項(xiàng)目質(zhì)量特性Project Quality Characteristics可生產(chǎn)性（技術(shù)能力） Productivity (Technolo

36、gy required)可使用性（使用的方便程度）Usability (Effort expended to use)可靠性（MTBF-產(chǎn)品故障之間平均時(shí)間周期）Reliability (Mean-Time-Between-Failure: MTBF)可維護(hù)性（MTTR-維修之間的平均時(shí)間周期）Maintainability (Mean-Time-To-Repair: MTTR)可獲得性（產(chǎn)品性能概率）Availability (Probability of performance)可操作性（預(yù)期的、有條件的使用）Operability (Expected conditional use)靈活

37、性（預(yù)期的可變用途）Flexibility (Expected variable use)社會(huì)接受度（環(huán)境和安全）Social Acceptability (Environment and safety)可承受能力（由于質(zhì)量原因?qū)Ξa(chǎn)品的退回）Affordability (Return for quality required)資源Resource人 (People)設(shè)施 (Facility)設(shè)備 (Equipment)流動(dòng)資金 (Cash Flow)原材料 (Raw Material)信息（ Information)成本估算精確范圍Cost Estimation Accuracy 量級(jí)方法：

38、-25%-+75%Estimation:預(yù)算： -10%-+25%Budgeting:最后預(yù)算： -5%-+10%Final Budgeting:掙值法概念掙值是基于以下三個(gè)基本概念：PV，（計(jì)劃值），或計(jì)劃內(nèi)工作的估算成本（BCWS）；Budget Cost of Work Schedule.EV,（掙值），或已完成工作的估算成本（BCWP）Budget Cost of Work Performed.AC,（實(shí)際成本），或已完成的工作的實(shí)際成本支出（ACWP）Actual Cost of Work Performed.EV解釋迄今為止，項(xiàng)目A按計(jì)劃應(yīng)已完成計(jì)劃值$10,000的工作量，但是，

39、實(shí)際完成的工作量只有85%（ $8，500值的工作量）。 $8，500值的工作量便是該任務(wù)的掙值（EV）。其它掙值概念BAC（完成時(shí)的預(yù)算）：項(xiàng)目總成本預(yù)算ETC（至完成時(shí)的成本預(yù)算）：基于項(xiàng)目目前已發(fā)生的成本支出，為完成剩余項(xiàng)目還需多少成本支出？EAC（完成時(shí)的估算）：基于項(xiàng)目目前已發(fā)生的成本支出，項(xiàng)目實(shí)際成本總支出是多少？項(xiàng)目成本管理中的幾個(gè)重要公式CV（成本偏差）=EV-ACCV案例：迄今為止已完成 $8,500值的工作量（EV），但是其實(shí)際成本支出是$9,000（AC）。所以，實(shí)際支出比原先估算多支出了$500（CV）！SV（進(jìn)度偏差）=EV-PVSV案例：迄今為止，應(yīng)該完成A任務(wù)$1

40、0，000成本估算值的工作量，但是實(shí)際完成了$8，500值的工作量（EV）。因此，落后于進(jìn)度$1，500值的工作量（SV）CV%（成本偏差百分比）=CV/EVSV%（進(jìn)度偏差百分比）=SV/PV50/50法則是為了解決主觀估算工作完成量的問(wèn)題某項(xiàng)任務(wù)只要開(kāi)始，便為此計(jì)入PV值的50%為其EV待該任務(wù)結(jié)束后，便為此計(jì)入PV值的另50%EV重要假設(shè)：這些任務(wù)的假設(shè)條件一致50/50法則有三種類(lèi)型：0/100：這是基于一項(xiàng)任務(wù)只有全部完成后才有價(jià)值的假設(shè)。它是較保守的法則。20/80：這是較小心的法則，但沒(méi)有0/100來(lái)得保守。 50/50：較通用表示項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展程度的法則進(jìn)度計(jì)劃Processing

41、Plan 進(jìn)度計(jì)劃（TQC）雖然有其嚴(yán)密性和科學(xué)性，但必須符合項(xiàng)目所處環(huán)境的需要。 Although Processing Plan has the tight & scientific characteristic, it should meet all the requirements of Project Environment. 一個(gè)符合實(shí)際的計(jì)劃是不斷修改出來(lái)的，不是“編”出來(lái)的。 The Practical Plan is based on amending, is not from “Edition” .應(yīng)急計(jì)劃（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概念）Emergency Plan (Risk Definit

42、ions)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) (Risk)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指在特定的客觀情況下，在特定期間里，某一事件的預(yù)期結(jié)果與實(shí)際結(jié)果之間的變動(dòng)程度。 Risk is meant one event, its Changeable Degree between the foreseen result and existing result under the special condition and a special period. 變動(dòng)程度越大，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越大；反之，則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越小。 The bigger , the Changeable Degree, the higher, the Risk will be. Oppositio

43、n, the lower, the Risk is.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的認(rèn)識(shí)Know the Risk風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是客觀存在的，不因?yàn)槿藗円庾R(shí)到與否而改變。 Risk is exiting, it will not be changed, or disappeared because of the mentality.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的大小是可以衡量的，根據(jù)概率論可以判斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的大小。 Risk can be measurable, which also can be judged according to Probability.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能發(fā)生變化，當(dāng)客觀環(huán)境發(fā)生變化時(shí)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的大小也可能發(fā)生變化。 Risk can be chan

44、geable , when the Exiting Environment is changing, the Risk Type & Degree will be probably changed.項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Risk in PM 項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指項(xiàng)目在執(zhí)行期間所發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 Project Risk is appointed as all the Risks during the Project Operation Period. 項(xiàng)目的一次性特性，使其不確定性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率比其它管理要大得多，因而，項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可預(yù)測(cè)性比其它管理系統(tǒng)要差得多。 One time Characteristic in Proj

45、ect, the rate of the Non-foreseen Risk is much more than the other Management System. So the foreseen Characteristic in Project Risk is much poorer than the other Management System.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素The Factors of Risk-物質(zhì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素(Factor of Matter Risk)一切可以看見(jiàn)的,有害項(xiàng)目正常進(jìn)行和操作的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 All Foreseeable Risks to Attack the Projec

46、t under the Normal Operation.-人為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素(Factor of Man-Made Risk)a. 道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：從損失發(fā)生中獲益，往往具有“一念之差”的閃忽點(diǎn)。 Risk of Moral: Get the Benefits from the Lost, Probably a Sudden Flashing with “a momentary slip”.b. 行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：不認(rèn)真負(fù)責(zé)的工作態(tài)度。 Risk of Action: Poor Responsible Working Style. 不同的項(xiàng)目生命周期，有不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。 Different PLC, Diffe

47、rent Risk Factors.項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征Specifications of Project Risk(1)客觀性(Objective)因?yàn)轫?xiàng)目是由人組成的團(tuán)隊(duì),在一定的客觀條件下進(jìn)行，所以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在一開(kāi)始就產(chǎn)生了。這是因?yàn)槲镔|(zhì)因素和人為因素都構(gòu)成潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。 Risk is along with the beginning of Project because the Project is Composed of a Team of People under the Objective Condition. This is because Material & Man-Made Fac

48、tors make the Potential Risky Factors.(2) 普遍性Widespread隨著科技的發(fā)展，社會(huì)的進(jìn)步，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是越來(lái)越增加，這是因?yàn)槔系娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在，而新技術(shù)所帶來(lái)的新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在逐步增加。 The more the Development of Science & Technology, the more the Risk will be. This is because Original Risks are still existing, and New Risks are getting more with the Development of the new

49、Technology.技術(shù)越先進(jìn)事故損失越大 The more Advanced Technology, the more Accident will be. 技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)越復(fù)雜總體越“脆弱” The more Complicated Technical Structure, the more “Weak” of the Total Management.收益越高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)潛勢(shì)越深 The Higher the Income, the deeper the Potential Risk.(3) 偶然性Contingency無(wú)法準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)何時(shí)發(fā)生，以及發(fā)生后的后果。 Unable to Foresee

50、when & what Result the Risk will Happen & will be. 不確定性Unforeseen 0 概率Probability (4) 必然性Necessity概率論看風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的趨勢(shì) Probability-Check the Risk Tendency 數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)看量（概率）和質(zhì)（損失幅度）為項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供依據(jù)。 Mathematical StatisticsCheck Quantity (Probability) & Type (Lost Amount) in order to Provide the Basis for the Project Risk M

51、anagement.(5) 可變性Changeable 變化 Changes 變化客觀條件ObjectiveCondition空間Space時(shí)間范圍Time Scope風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的性質(zhì)Risk Characteristics風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的量Risk Quantity新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的產(chǎn)生New Risk風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理Risk Management風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別Risk Distinguish風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估測(cè)RiskEstimation風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)Risk Evaluation應(yīng)對(duì)措施ProperPrecaution風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Risk Identification文件審查：項(xiàng)目班子一開(kāi)始

52、所采取的步驟，通常是從項(xiàng)目整體到范圍細(xì)節(jié)的層次上，對(duì)以往項(xiàng)目檔案及其它資料中的項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃與假設(shè)，進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的審查。Documentation reviews: Performing a structured review of project plans and assumptions, both at the total project and detailed scope levels, prior project files, and other information is generally the initial step taken by project teams.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的工具與

53、技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Risk Identification2. 信息收集技術(shù)Information-gathering Techniques 集思廣益會(huì)Brainstorming特爾斐技術(shù)Delphi Techniques面談Interviewing優(yōu)勢(shì)、弱點(diǎn)、機(jī)會(huì)與威脅分析Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Risk Identification3. 核對(duì)表風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別所用的核對(duì)表可根據(jù)歷史資料、以往項(xiàng)目類(lèi)

54、型所積累的知識(shí)、以及其它信息來(lái)源著手制訂。使用核對(duì)表的優(yōu)點(diǎn)之一是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別過(guò)程迅速簡(jiǎn)便。其缺點(diǎn)之一是所制訂核對(duì)表不可包羅萬(wàn)象，而使用者所考慮的范圍卻被有效地限制在核對(duì)表所列范疇之內(nèi)。Checklists: Checklists for risk identification can be developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. One

55、advantage of using a checklist is that risk identification is quick and simple. One disadvantage is that it is impossible to build an exhaustive checklist of risks, and the user may be effectively limited to the categories in the list.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Risk Identification4. 假設(shè)分析每個(gè)項(xiàng)目都是

56、根據(jù)一套假定、設(shè)想、或者假設(shè)進(jìn)行構(gòu)思與制訂的。假設(shè)分析是檢驗(yàn)假設(shè)有效性（即假設(shè)是否站得住腳）的一種技術(shù)。Assumptions analysis:Every project is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions. Assumptions analysis is a technique that explores the assumptions validity.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Risk Identification5.

57、 圖解技術(shù) Diagramming techniques:因果圖（魚(yú)刺圖）Cause-and-effect diagrams (fishbone)系統(tǒng)或過(guò)程流程圖System or process flow charts影響圖Influence diagrams風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定性分析的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Qualitative Risk Analysis風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率與影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率指風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的可能性。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)后果指風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一旦發(fā)生對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)產(chǎn)生的影響。Risk probability is the likelihood that a risk will occur.Risk con

58、sequences is the effect on project objectives if the risk event occurs.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定性分析的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Qualitative Risk Analysis2. 概率/影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別評(píng)定矩陣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率標(biāo)度（0-1）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響標(biāo)度（0.01-1)Probability/impact risk rating matrix.The risks probability scale （0-1）The risks impact scale（0.01-1)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定性分析的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techn

59、iques for Qualitative Risk Analysis3. 項(xiàng)目假設(shè)測(cè)試（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)假設(shè)后的穩(wěn)定性，假設(shè)不成立時(shí)造成的后果）。Project assumptions testing. (Assumption stability and the consequences on the project if the assumption is false.)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定性分析的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Qualitative Risk Analysis4. 數(shù)據(jù)精確度級(jí)別評(píng)定（理解程度，現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)，數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量，可靠性與健全性）。Data precision ranki

60、ng:Extent of understanding of the risk.Data available about the risk.Quality of the data.Reliability and integrity of the data.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量分析的工具與技術(shù)Tools & Techniques for Quantitative Risk Analysis*面談(與投資人和專(zhuān)家面談）*敏感性分析（把不確定因素保持在基準(zhǔn)值之下）*決策樹(shù)分析（用量化來(lái)做決策）*模擬（蒙特卡洛技術(shù)，WBS，PDM）*Interviewing (with stakeholder & subject-