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DevelopmentandEncouragementofrenewableenergytechnologies1.1ProjectBackgroundSinceitsinceptioninthe1970s,theU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)hasoperatedasubstantialprograminthedevelopmentandencouragementofrenewableenergytechnologies.Aspartofitsongoingefforttodocumentthestatusandpotentialofthesetechnologies,DOE,alongwithitsnationallaboratoriesandsupportorganizations,developedthefirstsetofRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations(TCs)in1989.TheTCsweredesignedtorespondtoDOE’sneedforasetofconsistentcostandperformancedatatosupportthedevelopmentofthebiennialNationalEnergyPolicyPlans.ThatfirstsetofTCswassubsequentlyusedtosupporttheanalysesthatwereperformedin1991byDOEfortheNationalEnergyStrategy.TheTCswereupdatedin1993,butuntilnowhadnotbeenformallypublishedandexistedonlyindraftform.TheElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI),operatingonbehalfofitsmemberutilities,hasconductedaprogramintheassessment,evaluationandadvancementofrenewablepowertechnologiessincethemid-1970s.Inthatrole,EPRIhasbeencalleduponbyitsmembers,andoftenbytheenergycommunityingeneral,toprovideobjectiveinformationonthestatusandoutlookforrenewablesinprospectiveelectric-powerapplications.Towardthataim,EPRIhasjoinedwithDOEtoproducethissetofRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations.ThisjointprojectisoneofanumberofactivitiesthatDOEandEPRIareconductingunderthejointDOE-EPRISustainableElectricPartnershipenteredintoformallybybothorganizationsinOctober1994.ItbuildsuponanumberofactivitiesconductedjointlybyDOEandEPRIoverthepasttwodecades.1.2Objectives,ApproachandScopePurposeandAudience:Inresponsetogrowinginterestinrenewablepowertechnologiesandtheneedforconsistent,objectiveassessmentsoftechnologyperformanceandcosts,DOEandEPRIcollaboratedtopreparetheRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations(TCs)presentedinthisdocument.Together,throughthisdocument,DOEandEPRIaimtoprovidefortheenergycommunityandthegeneralpublicanobjectivepictureofthestatusandexpectationsfortherenewablepowertechnologiesinelectric-powerapplicationsintheUnitedStates.TheseTCsrepresentaconsensusbetweenDOEandEPRIonthecurrentstatusandprojecteddevelopmentpathoffiverenewableelectricitygeneratingtechnologies:biomass,geothermal,photovoltaics,solarthermalandwind.Inaddition,recognizingtherolethatstoragecanplayinenhancingthevalueofsomerenewablepowerplants,aTCforstoragetechnologies,withastrongemphasisonbatteries,isincludedinanappendix.TheTCscanservetwodistinctpurposes.First,theyaredesignedtobeareferencetoolforenergy-policyanalystsandpower-systemplannersseekingobjectivecostandperformancedata.Second,theextensivediscussionsoftheassumptionsthatunderliethedataprovidevaluableinsightsforR&DprogramplannersastheystrivetoprioritizefutureR&Defforts.Approach:Buildingonthebestavailableinformationandexperiencefrommanyyearsofdirectinvolvementinthedevelopmentandassessmentofrenewableenergytechnologies,expertsfromDOE,itsnationallaboratoriesandsupportorganizationspreparedcharacterizationsofthemajorrenewabletechnologies.Theseweresubjectedtoin-depthreviewbyEPRItechnicalstaffinrenewablesandselectedoutsidereviewers,andthendiscussedatlengthintwotechnicalworkshopsinvolvingthewritersandthereviewers.Thecharacterizationswerethenrevised,reflectingdiscussionsatandsubsequenttotheworkshops,resultinginthisconsensusdocument.Insomecases,EPRIstaffparticipatedinpreparationofoverviewsections.DocumentScope:TheTCsdonotdescribespecificproductsorhardwareconfigurations.Theydescribetypicalsystemconfigurationsatfiveyearincrementsthroughtheyear2030,basedonaprojectedevolutionofthetechnologiesduring1-2thattimeframe.Theyoftenportraychangesinexpectedtechnologyconfigurationovertime.Allowingachangingconfigurationensuresthat,ineachtimeframediscussed,theTCrepresentsthemostcost-effectiveconfigurationprojectedtobeavailableinthattimeframe.Forexample,thesolarthermalpowertowerevolvesfromahybridplantwithaconventionalreceivertoasolar-onlyplantwithanadvancedreceiver.TheTCsdonotattempttopickwinnersamongavarietyofchoices.Inthatspirit,thinfilmPVsystemsare,forexample,describedonlyinagenericway,notspecifyinganyparticularthinfilmtechnologyinanygiventimeframe.ThisviewofthetechnologyfuturemirrorstheR&DportfolioapproachthatDOEtakes,allowingthetechnologyitselfandthemarketplacetodeterminewinnersandlosers.EachTCshouldbethoughtofasadescriptionofthattechnologyinaparticularapplication,typicallyasagridconnectedsystemforbulkpowersupply.However,someTCsdobrieflydescribeotherapplicationsthatcouldusesubstantiallythesametechnologyconfiguration.TheseTCsdifferfromEPRI’sTechnicalAssessmentGuide(TAG?)inthattheyprovidemoreextensivediscussionsoftheexpectedtechnologyevolutionthrough2030.However,thecostandperformancedatapresentedherearebeingusedasabasisforTAG?revisionsthatarecurrentlyinprogress.SimilartotheTAG?,theseTCsdonotdescribearecommendedeconomicanalysismethodology,butinsteaddescribevariousapproachesthatcouldbetakentocalculatelevelizedcostofenergyorotherappropriatefinancialfiguresofmerit.Theseapproachesspanarangeofpossibleownershipscenariosinaderegulatedutilityenvironment.CautionaryNote:Thecostandperformanceinformationpresentedrepresentthebestjudgmentsoftheindividualsinvolvedinthepreparationandreviewofthisdocument.Asthesetechnologiesenterthecommercialmarketplace,normalcompetitiveforcesandcommercialexperiencemayhaveimpactsthataredifficulttopredictatthistime.Forexample,thereareindicationsthatpricesforsomeconventionalpower-plantcomponentsandassociatedengineeringservicesaredroppingascompetitioninpowergenerationbecomesmorewidespread.Basedonveryrecentcommercialexperience,thistrendisalreadyreflectedinthegeothermal-hydrothermalflash-steamplantcostspresentedinthisdocument.Similarcostimpactsmaybeobservedinotherrenewablepowerplantsemployingconventionalthermalgenerationcomponentsoncethetechnologiesbecomeestablishedsufficientlytoattractmultiplecommercialsuppliers.Readersareurgedtousecautioninapplyingnumericaldatafromthisdocumentincommercialsituationswithoutconsultingengineeringfirmsactivelyinvolvedinthecommercialmarketplace.RelationshiptoOngoingRenewablesProgramsatDOEandEPRIThetechnologiesdiscussedinthisdocumentareconsideredbytherenewablescommunity,andbythemanagementsoftheDOEandEPRIrenewablesprograms,tohavegoodpotentialforcontributingsignificantlytotheU.S.electricalenergysupply.Consequently,thesetechnologiescontinuetoreceivetechnicalandmarket-developmentsupportwithintheprogramsofDOEandEPRI.Ofcourse,thereisnoguaranteethatallofthesetechnologieswilldevelopandcontributeasprojectedinthisdocument.Rather,theirindividualprospectsandroleswilldependnotonlyonthedegreeofsupportreceived,butalsoonthepaceofprogressandonsocietalneedsandpriorities.Ultimately,themarketplace,reflectingbothcommercialandsocietalforces,willdecide.Development-SupportAssumptionTheprojectedprogressforthesetechnologiesisbasedontheassumptionthatrobustprogramscontinueinbothtechnologyandmarketdevelopment.Ingeneral,theseprogramsneedbothpublicandprivatesectorsupport,withthebalanceshiftingmoretowardthecommercialsectorastechnicalmaturityisapproached.Ifsupportforaparticulartechnologyiscurtailed,thentheprojectedprogressalmostcertainlywillnotoccur.深1.3著Gene角ric磁Bene切fits毅and蟲Iss蟻ues談The釣bene腔fits柿of同usin只gre骨newa膛ble泛ener綿gyr僵esou驚rces礎(chǔ)are羊man馳y.M娃ost潤oft溝hese炭ben席efit環(huán)sar延ise間from絹the餐irv約irtu斯ally擱ine躁xhau早stib揭len該atur易e.S碗olar井a(chǎn)nd托win師dre數(shù)sour治ces咬are律repl責enis括hed著ona姓dai焰lyb馬asis責.Bi芝omas隆sca膊nbe麻gro笑wnt瑞hrou臨ghm菌anag鑰eda摩gric味ultu絨ral盞prog翼rams序to猛prov茶ide忽cont檔inuo乘uss侮ourc茄eso紡ffu桃el.王Geot包herm鈔alp椒ower瑞is煮extr旅acte抬dfr斑omt賣hev琴irtu況ally暗unl抖imit稀edt賽herm思ale姿nerg藥yin故the罵ear駐t桐h鞭’冬scr評ust.咸Ren左ewab傷lee棍nerg悟yre騰sour水ces鑄are暴broa姑dly紫avai增labl壞eac凳ross該the滋U.S鐮.Ce剛rtai懶nre徑gion五s,h摘owev砌er,渠tend廟to乓have報mor斬eac昏cess默ible逆res庫ourc減eof幻one笨typ末eth似ana隨noth秋er.淡Figu悟re1溪ill匠ustr飲ates掏thi暗sdi繡vers描ity.幅For齡exa注mple遼,in腸the曾Mid易west沖,bi灰omas招san宮dwi肉ndr疾esou夢rces懸are代exc常elle貴nt,脾asi愈sth徐eso志lar距radi單atio位nne財eded技for受fla仗t-pl鴨ate術(shù)phot漂ovol納taic樓s.I仍nth印eSo巧uthw杠est,敢hig架hle醋vels或of泛dire鄙ctn延orma彈lin三sola雹tion判are把跨idea敢lly等suit螺edt語oso強lar摩ther星mal礦and不sun朋ligh駁t-co獎ncen屈trat如ion虛phot碧ovol疼taic耗tec糟hnol青ogie恭s.G極eoth準erma路lre兆sour甘ces陷are遣conc賊entr這ated曬in菠the賊west云ern腸part效sof孝the追U.S鉗.Th叫eav舍aila剩bili糟tyo農(nóng)fea羨cho胞fth昌ere誤newa牛ble幟reso序urce戰(zhàn)sis邀exp尊lore濾dfu不rthe荒rin巡the公tec茫hnol鳳ogy搞over朱view衛(wèi)sin莫thi邁sdo藝cume朝nt.幻The蜜bene物fits屋of利rene腫wabl悟een輕ergy值ext社end貝beyo賊nda調(diào)bund功ance搏and煙div呆ersi甜ty.侮Asi那ndig擊enou噴s季reso蛙urce唯s,t領(lǐng)hey沉fost掌erb鉤oth慈loca碼lco敢ntro緩lan去dec豬onom魄icg踢rowt率h.A舅nin攔vest焰ment薦in豆rene搶wabl天een叼ergy倚con僻trib寸utes暢to拒loca解lec惹onom旁ics瑞ecur輝ity.輸In抱addi沈tion塵,th圈ein拜corp榨orat填ion餃ofr丑enew蘿able汽sin屯ag攤ener巾atio棟npo錢rtfo系lio慌may模redu速cet堅her掃isks蠢ass雷ocia虧ted悶with法flu惕ctua鵲ting筒fos舉sil-果fuel續(xù)pri棚ces僵and導supp種lies蚊.命Asr占enew書able旨ene湊rgy哥tech香nolo假gies尿bec爹ome蕉more層cos蘋t-co食mpet扁itiv香e,t罵heir都tru撕eec儲onom獵icb斤enef廟its董are印bein創(chuàng)gre暈aliz靜ed.者Sinc宅ema造nyr五enew箱able緒ene逼rgy縱plan劃tsd媽ono場tne渣edt筆obe紡bui臣lti苗nla囑rge逢scal鹽eto愁ach攀ieve余the燭low獻est礎(chǔ)poss懇ible奇pla兆ntc朋osts羽,th側(cè)eyc勤anb詳ebu必ilt少ins艱ize囑incr縫emen敲tsp濱ropo狗rtio恰nate頸to協(xié)load春gro洲wth拜patt滅erns擾and椒loc辯aln豎eeds歷.Th天isi女sof昆ten倡refe振rred瘦to廉a(chǎn)st宰heir齊mod緩ular濾ity.英Giv絡(luò)ent和heir穴sma脹ller雨siz孕e,t滴hey半can眠also嫁be夕loca射ted岔clos組ert姜oth珠ecu千stom頃erl醫(yī)oad,立red晚ucin誕gin雅fras扯truc建ture裁cos龍tsf隔ort岡rans泉miss層ion費and采dist鬧ribu碎tion雙,an訂dhe由lpin繞gto豐gua號rant莊eel揮ocal筑pow杠err惹elia備bili旅tya葵ndq膜uali血ty.蟻Such閘忘“麻dist姓ribu細te任d豎”濱app夸lica井tion冷sap乏pear售to助have刻ap窄oten滅tial努lyh重igh旬econ裝omic脊val念ueb垮eyon嫂dju護stt側(cè)hev騰alue娘of運the雷elec青tric退ity豐gene晴rate植d.勝Seve朝ral捐oft膚her作enew鍬able殘ene師rgy工tech余nolo霸gies裙,na表mely賀pho甲tovo躍ltai模cs,板sola餃r-th虧erma壁lan甜dwi妨nd,鞏prod崖uce謎noe舅miss赤ions干dur慘ing煉powe立rge急nera數(shù)tion郵.Bi朵omas倚spl徒ants括,wi概tha鉛pro伙perl蟲yma堂nage暴dfu增elc簽ycle新and贈mod問ern同emis流sion從con小trol抹s,p禍rodu飄cez軍ero億net晨carb雁one滅miss妖ions因and額min瞞imal悲amo羽unts草of戶othe腰rat玉mosp覆heri繞cef山flue尾nts.戰(zhàn)The估sit環(huán)uati偷oni欄smu能cht牢hes努ame濾for促geot戶herm妙alp處lant票s.W蒼hen勝thes控ete春chno弦logi債esd砌ispl秘ace稿foss岔ilf調(diào)uels態(tài),th趕eya希vo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